How many people won't come?
Planners who have run free events for years are fairly consistent. In Eventbrite's interviews with organizers, one expects 25 to 30% to drop out on the day, another typically sees 30%, others plan for up to 50%, and one says rain can push it higher. For online sessions, published attendance rates of 40 to 58% imply that 42 to 60% of registrants don't join live.
So a free event with a 30 to 50% no-show rate is normal, and it isn't a failure. Nobody paid, so changing their mind costs them nothing. Your goal is to move that number, not to eliminate it.
Work out how many to register
Divide the people you want in the room by the share you expect to come.
| Seats to fill | If 70% come | If 60% come | If 50% come |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 43 | 50 | 60 |
| 60 | 86 | 100 | 120 |
| 100 | 143 | 167 | 200 |
| 200 | 286 | 333 | 400 |
Use your own past rate once you've got one. If you're opening beyond capacity, cover the risk of everyone coming: know how many extra chairs you can find, and keep a waitlist for the rest. The same Eventbrite piece describes one team that deliberately issued extra tickets and reallocated the unclaimed ones, ending with about 400 people, or roughly 85% of the tickets issued.
Don't over-register a venue with a hard fire limit unless you've a way to manage the door. A waitlist with check-in is safer than hoping the usual number drops out.
Seven things that move the number
1. Get it on their calendar
An event that's only in an inbox is easily forgotten. Offer a calendar file and an Add to Google Calendar link at the moment they register, and repeat it in the confirmation. If the time changes, the calendar should change too.
2. Send reminders that give new information
A reminder that repeats the invitation is easy to ignore. One that says who's coming, what's been added or which door to use earns its place. Our reminder guide has the timing and the wording.
3. Make cancelling easy
This feels backwards, but someone who can't come and can cancel with one tap frees a seat, cleans your numbers and stays on good terms with you. If cancelling is a hassle, they just don't turn up. Let people reply "cancel" to any email.
4. Run a real waitlist
A waitlist turns a cancellation into a place filled. It only works if people move up automatically and hear about it right away, with enough time to change their plans.
5. Ask one question at sign-up
"What do you hope to get from this?" gives people a small stake in the event, and gives you something to use. Mention the answers in your reminder: "Most of you asked about pricing, so we're starting there." A person who sees their question on the agenda has a reason to come.
6. Make it easy to bring someone
People are more likely to come when they're coming with somebody. Give registrants a way to bring a colleague, and tell them about it in the confirmation.
7. Be careful what you promise
"Everyone gets the recording" is a fair offer, and some registrants will decide that the replay is enough. For a webinar, that's often a fine trade: replays add real audience. If the live conversation is the point, say what only the live room gets, such as Q&A, a workshop or a review of their own work.
Should you charge a small fee?
Charging changes who registers, not only whether they come. Commonly quoted no-show rates for paid events are lower, though those figures come from vendors and vary widely. It's a trade-off: a fee adds friction and shrinks your registrations, sometimes by more than it improves attendance, and it can exclude the people a community event most wants to reach. A deposit returned on attendance is another option, with extra work on your side. For most free community events and webinars, try the seven items above first.
Measure it properly
Record who came, by check-in at the door or from your platform's attendance. Compare attendance by source, because some ways in bring people who show up and some don't. Then follow up differently with those who came and those who missed it. Someone who missed it isn't lost: they said yes once, which makes them the best audience you have for the next date.
Doing this in Programmable Talk
Each registrant gets a page with a calendar file, reminders in the thread they started, and a cancel button. Replying "cancel" to any email cancels, and a freed place moves the next person up the waitlist. A hope question is built in, and what people hope for appears in your brief. Attendance comes back from Luma, Zoom and Eventbrite, or from the check-in screen, so the follow-up goes to the right people.